More thoughts on the possible Korean War

With the media flailing around as usual, it would seem as if war with North Korea was imminent. President Trump and North Korean Communist Dictator Kim-Jong Un are trading barbs at each other. Secretary of Defense James Mattis warns Kim-Jong Un that his country will be destroyed if he attacks the United States or its allies. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson aims to get U.N. Sanctions enforced at the highest levels and calls for the world to isolate North Korea. It seems as if war may break out any minute. Lets break this down. While I believe risks are very high right now, I’ve got a contrarian view on things.

In my view, the Korean war was one of the most justified interventions we took part in and was worth it. Many members of the South Korean, U.S., Australian, and British Armed Forces lost their lives and for those who made the ultimate sacrifice a Democracy was saved, millions were saved from massacre, and a powerful nation emerged. South Korea is ahead of North Korea in almost every meaningful measure. They are a very wealthy nation, have a strong framework of laws and justice, have a very powerful and technologically sophisticated military, have a healthy and educated population, and are a major force for Asian and global economic growth. They are a strong trade and military ally of the United States and Japan. Our country really protected and nurtured something great. The South Korean people should be commended for how they rose out of the rubble of the Korean War to build an economic powerhouse that we now know as the Republic of Korea. After years of friction with the north since the armistice of 1953, war tensions are rising once again and it is possible that North Korea may attack U.S. territory such as Guam, its neighbor to the south, or Japan. Risks are particularly high because it is highly probable that the rogue regime to the North may have developed the technology to miniaturize nuclear material and develop their own arsenal of nuclear warheads. They have now directly threatened the U.S. territory of Guam which hosts a large U.S. Naval installation. They are rarely ever this specific and a North Korean military leader indicated that Kim-Jon Un has ordered a battle plan to strike Guam. President Trump, U.S. Defense Secretary General James Mattis, South Korean & Japanese Military Leaders, and Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull have all warned the North Korean regime that it will be decimated if they attack the United States or its allies. There is no doubt in my mind that we can militarily defeat the North. South Korea has a formidable military capability and add Japan, Australia, and the United States which has the most powerful military on earth and beyond. We will burn their nation to the ground in war. Hell, China has said they will not help the North if they hit U.S. territory. Even if China were to intervene militarily, they would not be able to win and World War III would likely commence if the United States and China went into direct combat. China displayed strength during the last Korean War (1950-1953) but they would have been defeated and the whole Korean peninsula would have been taken by U.N. troops if not for President Harry Truman’s milquetoast behavior. He fired revered General Douglas MacArthur when he was planning to bomb the Chinese and North Korean troops and take all the land for a unified Korea. China will probably interfere indirectly like they did last time but may not escalate because it would hurt them economically and they will not be able to win. China has the largest standing military on earth at 2.5 million but they are still not as technologically advanced, battle ready, or experienced to win a direct war with the United States. The U.S. Navy’s force projection capability alone is what makes China not risk direct confrontation with the United States. They know that they can never win. No military in the world can defeat the United States in a conventional war such as World War II.

Now the U.S. is getting much smarter with guerrilla warfare and cyber warfare but the Washington elites have still not learnt from the foreign policy mistakes of the past. The wars in Vietnam and Iraq were full of short-term thinking and terrible strategic and tactical planning, we always demonstrate military superiority and then we get bogged down in the diplomacy and foreign relations part. If the U.S.’s only goal in Vietnam was conventional military victory and then leaving, we would’ve won based on the strategic planning. But by then there was too much political correctness, lack of public support for the war, inability to get the South Vietnamese organized, ready, and motivated to fight for their homeland, and a weak battle and diplomatic strategy. The United States should go to war only when it is absolutely unavoidable and when there is a very strong and credible diplomatic and political strategy after the military victory. We win wars all the time but our diplomatic and political strategy is weak. Look at the success of post-WWII Europe and South Korea, the reasons for that are those places where we won had a lot of strong human capital, our diplomatic and political strategy was well defined and executed to perfection. It took a while for South Korea to recover but now they have emerged as a powerhouse. Iraq and Afghanistan didn’t work out because of the lack of human capital, inability to admit truths after the military victory, and a misguided attempt to build these countries up like post-war Germany or Korea. Iraq and Afghanistan have very little valuable human capital and they are not equally developed as Germans or Koreans. They still live in a very tribal manner, hold unscientific prejudices and views which affects their economies, and believe in a generally extreme and backward way of life. Very few people are highly educated and productive so it is never going to be possible for them to make the countries successful and highly productive, the Bush Administration miscalculated here and it costed us a lot in blood and treasure. We should’ve just taken our military victories and left or we shouldn’t have invaded with a conventional force. North Korea poses a problem in multiple ways, we may not be able to strike them first due to the likelihood of a situation like Iraq emerging after the military victory. North Korea is filled brainwashed communist slaves who may not be able to reintegrate in a United Korea, China may try to stop a reunification effort, and many allied civilians and military personnel will die in the war. And the financial cost is frightening to imagine. Iraq and Afghanistan were relatively small wars compared to WWI, WWII, Korea, Vietnam, and even the Persian Gulf War. Just those wars are estimated to have costed anywhere from $3-6 Trillion. A war in Korea against a million plus North Korean soldiers plus possible Chinese interference and costs of rebuilding could cost all the allied parties involved trillions of dollars. The U.S. and Japan are heavily indebted nations and it will hit our nations particularly hard and you can count on liberal scum protesting on the streets all over the world against the war, even if Kim hits us first.

 

So what are we to do?

I’m not an academic or expert on foreign policy, international relations, or military strategy. I’m just a guy who reads a lot about these matters and have an opinion. My view is that Diplomacy first is important, we should continue the pressure campaign on China and other Asia-Pacific nations to isolate and starve Pyongyang and Comrade Kim. We should sanction all banks and businesses conducting commerce with the regime and we should covertly increase American military presence in the area. Adding more strike groups and 30-50,000 ground troops would be a good idea. Missile defense in the area should also be beefed up. The United States should keep the peace and be prepared for immediate military action. We shouldn’t strike unless Kim is preparing to or has launched another missile. For example if he tries to hit Guam, our military should shoot it out of the sky and start a bombing campaign to take out his heavy artillery pieces and nuclear sites and the allied force should invade the North. It would also be prudent to hack into and break down his technological infrastructure. The allied Naval force should hit his Navy and take out all his weapons. South Korea should lead the ground invasion and should take the fight to them with such overwhelming force as to completely shock them into weakness. Meanwhile, the State Department should warn Beijing and Moscow to back off and not intervene militarily other than to protect their own borders.

 

We should try our best to avoid military conflict but if the inevitable happens, we should expect nothing less than absolute and decisive victory. God bless the United States of America and her Armed Forces.

 

This is Saint Reagan signing off

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